An Israeli airstrike Sunday night caused a fire in a crowded tent city for displaced Palestinian civilians in Rafah, killing at least 45 people and wounding another 249, Gaza’s health ministry said. The strike and deadly fire came just days after the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to halt its offensive on Rafah, the southernmost city in the territory. (Reuters)
The Israeli strike on Sunday has drawn widespread international condemnation, most notably from several leaders in Europe. French President Emmanuel Macron said he was “outraged” by the blast and that there are “no safe areas in Rafah for Palestinian civilians.” The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, called for Israel to halt its operations in Rafah, a sentiment echoed by the foreign ministers of Spain and Germany, as well as Italy’s defense minister, among other high-level officials in Europe.
Leaders from European countries that support Israel have been shifting their rhetoric on the war in Gaza for some time now, in part because of a broader shift among the populations of those countries. In the nearly eight months since the Israel-Hamas war began, European leaders have faced growing calls to do more to pressure Israel to protect Palestinian civilians, while support for Israel’s operations in Gaza has decreased. That’s true even in Germany, where support for Israel’s security has been considered a consensus issue since World War II.
But despite the shift, the wave of condemnation of Israel from European leaders seen since Sunday has still been by far the most widespread and most unequivocal by some margin. That can largely be explained by two factors:
- The U.S. decision earlier this month to declare it would not provide offensive weapons for Israel’s use in an assault on Rafah.
- The ICJ’s emergency ruling on Friday ordering Israel to halt its military offensive in Rafah.
As we wrote at the time, the U.S. statement provided cover for European leaders to shift their own declarative positions on Israel’s military operations. Meanwhile, the ICJ ruling armed leaders across Europe, most of whom had already expressed opposition to Israel’s assault on Rafah, with a way to condemn Israel’s assault on Rafah under the auspices of respect for international law, rather than an official shift in position. Indeed, EU leaders are now using that reasoning as Brussels reportedly plans to issue an ultimatum to Israel—uphold the ICJ ruling or face consequences that could affect the country’s economic relationship with the EU.
Still, even a significant loss in support from European leaders is unlikely to change the Israeli government’s calculus, for reasons we’ve written about before. As long as Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu—whose political survival depends on the war—has a justification for prolonging the war, he will.