In brief

The regime, led by Nicolás Maduro of the Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV), will retain power in the 2024-28 forecast period owing to its strict control over the security apparatus and a patronage system that rewards high-ranking officials and punishes dissent.

After a six-month relief, the US restored on April 17th its sanctions on Venezuela's oil and gas sector in response to the Maduro regime's continued violation of its commitments to hold a free and fair presidential election on July 28th. Notably, the government barred the main opposition figure, María Corina Machado, from holding public office for 15 years, arrested several members of Ms Machado's campaign team on spurious charges and prevented her substitute, Corina Yoris, from contesting the election. The regime's outright infringements of its democratisation promises will cause Venezuela's credibility to wane further, leaving Mr Maduro with few options other than getting closer to China, Russia and Iran.

In terms of domestic policy, the Maduro regime will focus on reviving oil production and making piecemeal liberalisation efforts to attract private investment and jump-start an economy that has fallen back into recession. However, the business environment will remain abysmal, marred by a high degree of legal and policy uncertainty, US sanctions, heavy state intervention in the economy and archaic infrastructure following decades of underinvestment and inadequate maintenance.

Read more: US reimposes sanctions on Venezuela as election deal falters