In brief

Politics in Uruguay will be dominated by the October 2024 general election. The president, Luis Lacalle Pou of the centre-right Partido Nacional (PN), will not be able to run for re-election. The race is too close to call, but we expect that the next president will be elected in a second-round run-off vote held in November between the candidates representing the left-wing Frente Amplio and the PN.

Uruguay's economy will grow in 2024 as the end of a severe drought leads to a bumper harvest, which will lift agricultural exports and industrial production. Higher real salaries and a higher employment rate will also boost private consumption. Downside risks to our forecast include a sharper than expected economic contraction in Argentina and slower than anticipated growth in Brazil. Relations with Argentina are improving, as that country's right-wing government is easing import restrictions and is likely to support Mr Lacalle's push to create a more market-friendly Mercosur (a customs union that includes Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay). However, there is a risk that relations with Brazil will sour amid tensions over how to reform to the customs union. 

Read more: What to watch in 2024: Uruguay 

Read more: Lacalle announces huge US$4bn investment in e-fuels plant