In brief

EIU expects governability risks to be contained well into the medium term, as the People's National Movement (PNM) led by the prime minister, Keith Rowley, has a (slim) majority in Congress. Elevated oil and gas prices will support policymaking and GDP growth in 2024, enabling the economy to make up ground following five years of contraction in 2016-21. Given the heavy reliance of the economy on oil and gas, waning domestic hydrocarbons production will cause GDP growth to decelerate over the medium term, and softer energy prices will remain a risk to the outlook throughout the 2024-28 forecast period.