In brief

The centre-right president, Daniel Noboa of Acción Democrática Nacional (ADN), is facing a major diplomatic conflict after his government raided the Mexican embassy in order to capture Jorge Glas, a former vice-president (2013-17) of the left-wing Revolución Ciudadana (RC), who was convicted of corruption and was seeking to avoid an arrest warrant. 

In the short term, the raid has improved Mr Noboa's standing, as it has been seen by some as evidence of the president's tough stance on corruption; this perception may boost support for Mr Noboa's policy proposals in a referendum on April 21st. Nevertheless, the raid will deal a blow to Ecuador's reputation over the long term, as it violates international conventions that establish the inviolability of embassies in a host country. Moreover, Mr Glas is a key figure in RC, currently the largest party in Congress and with which Mr Noboa had a working relationship until recently. RC's support has been crucial to secure passage of several of Mr Noboa's bills. After the arrest of Mr Glas, RC legislators are likely to pose strong opposition to the Noboa administration. Trickier governability, together with a slowing economy, weak public finances and energy shortages, will pose major challenges for the president.

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