Exploring the determinants of methane emissions from a worldwide perspective using panel data and machine learning analyses.

This article contributes to the scant literature exploring the determinants of methane emissions. A lot is explored considering CO 2 emissions, but fewer studies concentrate on the other most long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG), methane which contributes largely to climate change. For the empirical analysis, a large dataset is used considering 192 countries with data ranging from 1960 up to 2022 and considering a wide set of determinants (total central government debt, domestic credit to the private sector, exports of goods and services, GDP per capita, total unemployment, renewable energy consumption, urban population, Gini Index, and Voice and Accountability). Panel Quantile Regression (PQR) estimates show a non-negligible statistical effect of all the selected variables (except for the Gini Index) over the distribution's quantiles. Moreover, the Simple Regression Tree (SRT) model allows us to observe that the losing countries, located in the poorest world regions, abundant in natural resources, are those expected to curb methane emissions. For that, public interventions like digitalization, green education, green financing, ensuring the increase in Voice and Accountability, and green jobs, would lead losers to be positioned in the winner's rankings and would ensure an effective fight against climate change. Ranking of alternative ML algorithms.Source: authors' elaborations in Knime and Fluorish.Studio. [Display omitted] • Methane emission determinants are analyzed for 192 countries for the 1960–2022 period. • Government debt, GDP, and unemployment increase CH 4 emissions. • Domestic credit, renewable consumption, exports, and urbanization reduce CH 4 emissions. • Losing countries are located in the poorest world regions, abundant in natural resources, dangerous for non-sustainable development. • Methane emissions are predicted to grow by 14.82% in Western countries (on average). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]