Predictive and Incremental Validity of the Static-99, Static-99R, and STABLE-2007 for Sexual Recidivism: A Diagnostic Test Accuracy Network Meta-Analysis (DTA-NMA).

The Static-99, Static-99R, and STABLE-2007 are internationally well-established instruments for predicting static and dynamic risks of sexual recidivism in individuals convicted of sexual offenses. Previous meta-analyses assessed their predictive and incremental validity, but none has yet compared the two Static versions and the Static–STABLE combinations. Here, we implemented diagnostic test accuracy network meta-analysis (DTA-NMA) to compare all tests and identify optimal cutoffs in one comprehensive analysis. The DTA-NMA included 32 samples comprising 45,224 adult male individuals. More information was available on the Static-99 (22 samples; 34,316 individuals) and the Static-99R (13 samples; 27,243 individuals), compared to the Static-99/STABLE-2007 (three samples; 762 individuals), the Static-99R/STABLE-2007 (two samples; 2,972 individuals), and the STABLE-2007 (three samples; 816 individuals). The primary outcome was the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The secondary outcomes were sensitivity and specificity. Optimal cutoffs were determined using the Youden index. The AUC suggested moderate predictive validity for Static-99 and Static-99R, whereas STABLE-2007 had no predictive value. The optimal cutoff of Static-99R was suggested to have higher specificity than that of Static-99, whereas sensitivity was comparable between instruments. The notion of incremental validity for STABLE-2007 could not be confirmed. This work represents the first meta-analysis to compare Static-99, Static-99R, STABLE-2007, and their combinations in one analysis. Static-99R demonstrated the highest specificity in predicting the risk of sexual recidivism, indicating a potential advantage in detecting true nonrecidivists. The findings are discussed, considering the current recommendations for assessing the risk of sexual recidivism in the criminal justice system. Public Significance Statement: This meta-analysis suggests an advantage of the Static-99R over the Static-99 in predictive validity and no incremental validity of the STABLE-2007 in assessing the risk of sexual recidivism in adult male individuals convicted of sexual offenses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]