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Background: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST).

Objectives: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios.

Methods: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5.

Results: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure-response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16°C revealed a relative risk (RR)=1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades.

Conclusions: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2198.

Titel:	Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System.
Autor/in / Beteiligte Person:	Semenza, JC ; Trinanes, J ; Lohr, W ; Sudre, B ; Löfdahl, M ; Martinez-Urtaza, J ; Nichols, GL ; Rocklöv, J
Link:	Volltext (PDF)
Zeitschrift:	Environmental health perspectives, Jg. 125 (2017-10-10), Heft 10, S. 107004
Veröffentlichung:	Research Triangle Park, N. C. National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences., 2017
Medientyp:	academicJournal
ISSN:	1552-9924 (electronic)
DOI:	10.1289/EHP2198
Schlagwort:	Cross-Over Studies Humans Sweden epidemiology Climate Change statistics & numerical data Environmental Exposure statistics & numerical data Vibrio Infections epidemiology
Sonstiges:	Nachgewiesen in: MEDLINE Sprachen: English Publication Type: Journal Article; Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Language: English [Environ Health Perspect] 2017 Oct 10; Vol. 125 (10), pp. 107004. <i>Date of Electronic Publication: </i>2017 Oct 10. MeSH Terms: Climate Change / statistics & numerical data ; Environmental Exposure / statistics & numerical data ; Vibrio Infections / *epidemiology ; Cross-Over Studies ; Humans ; Sweden / epidemiology Comments: Comment in: Environ Health Perspect. 2018 Mar 30;126(3):034003. (PMID: 29604621) References: Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis. 2004 Dec;23(12):912-5. (PMID: 15599654) ; Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 May 24;113(21):5964-9. (PMID: 27162369) ; Crit Rev Environ Sci Technol. 2012 Apr;42(8):857-890. (PMID: 24808720) ; MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2005 Sep 23;54(37):928-31. (PMID: 16177685) ; Appl Environ Microbiol. 1993 Aug;59(8):2425-9. (PMID: 8368832) ; Environ Health Perspect. 2015 Apr;123(4):A82-9. (PMID: 25831488) ; Appl Environ Microbiol. 2003 Jun;69(6):3526-31. (PMID: 12788759) ; Front Microbiol. 2017 May 31;8:997. (PMID: 28620366) ; Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis. 1996 Mar;15(3):227-32. (PMID: 8740858) ; Science. 2012 Apr 27;336(6080):418-9. (PMID: 22539705) ; N Engl J Med. 2011 Jan 6;364(1):33-42. (PMID: 21142692) ; Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2015 Jun 02;12(6):6333-51. (PMID: 26042370) ; MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2010 Nov 5;59(43):1411. (PMID: 21048563) ; Appl Environ Microbiol. 2010 Jul;76(14):4720-9. (PMID: 20472729) ; Lancet Infect Dis. 2009 Jun;9(6):365-75. (PMID: 19467476) ; Front Microbiol. 2016 Feb 11;7:144. (PMID: 26904017) ; J Appl Microbiol. 2008 Dec;105(6):2195-202. (PMID: 19120665) ; Diagn Microbiol Infect Dis. 2006 Jan;54(1):1-6. (PMID: 16368474) ; Euro Surveill. 2006 Aug 03;11(8):E060803.2. (PMID: 16966771) ; Euro Surveill. 2006 Aug 17;11(8):E060817.1. (PMID: 16966781) ; Springerplus. 2016 Apr 14;5:464. (PMID: 27119068) ; Emerg Infect Dis. 2005 Jan;11(1):129-31. (PMID: 15705337) ; J Med Microbiol. 2010 Feb;59(Pt 2):235-8. (PMID: 19797463) ; PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2013 Jul 25;7(7):e2323. (PMID: 23936561) ; Front Microbiol. 2014 Dec 11;5:705. (PMID: 25566219) ; Emerg Infect Dis. 2016 Apr;22(4):581-9. (PMID: 26982104) ; Appl Environ Microbiol. 1998 Apr;64(4):1459-65. (PMID: 9546182) ; Microb Ecol. 2013 May;65(4):1052-67. (PMID: 23563708) ; Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis. 2002 Jul;21(7):537-8. (PMID: 12172745) ; Environ Microbiol. 2010 Apr;12(4):929-37. (PMID: 20100246) ; Epidemiology. 2008 Nov;19(6):829-37. (PMID: 18854707) ; N Engl J Med. 2005 Oct 6;353(14):1463-70. (PMID: 16207848) ; N Engl J Med. 2013 Oct 17;369(16):1573-4. (PMID: 24131194) ; Appl Environ Microbiol. 2012 Oct;78(20):7249-57. (PMID: 22865080) ; Emerg Infect Dis. 2016 Jul;22(7):1216-20. (PMID: 27314874) ; Environ Health Perspect. 2017 Aug 07;125(8):085004. (PMID: 28796635) ; Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2014 Apr 09;11(4):3894-936. (PMID: 24722542) ; MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2014 Apr 18;63(15):335-6. (PMID: 24739344) ; Front Microbiol. 2015 Aug 13;6:830. (PMID: 26322036) ; Microb Ecol. 2013 May;65(4):817-25. (PMID: 23280498) ; Epidemiol Infect. 2005 Jun;133(3):383-91. (PMID: 15962544) ; Appl Environ Microbiol. 2002 Jun;68(6):2901-9. (PMID: 12039748) Entry Date(s): Date Created: 20171012 Date Completed: 20180116 Latest Revision: 20181113 Update Code: 20231215 PubMed Central ID: PMC5933323

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Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System.