Calculated plasma osmolality at hospital admission correlates well with eGFR and D-Dimer, a simple outcome predictor and guiding tool for management of severe COVID-19 patients.

Aims: To evaluate calculated total plasma osmolality as a marker of outcome prediction, fluid and metabolic balance, thrombotic risk in severe COVID-19 patients.

Methods: Retrospective data of RT-PCR confirmed hospitalized severe COVID-19 patients (total: n = 175 patients, including diabetic subset: n = 102) were analyzed. Clinically applicable cut-offs were derived using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis for calculated total osmolality, eGFR, and D-dimer, and their correlations were studied.

Results: Among 175 severe COVID-19 patients, a significant association with mortality was seen with respect to calculated total osmolality (p < 0.001), eGFR (p < 0.001), and D-dimer (p < 0.001). In the total cohort, applicable cut-offs based on ROC curve in predicting outcome were, for total osmolality 299 mosm/kg (area under the curve (AUC)-0.773, odds ratio (OR)-1.09), eGFR 61.5 ml/min/m2 (AUC-0.789, OR-0.96), D-dimer 5.13 (AUC-0.814, OR-2.65) respectively. In diabetic subset, the cut-offs for total osmolality were 298 mosm/kg (AUC-0.794, OR-1.12), eGFR 44.9 ml/min/m2 (AUC-0.774, OR-0.96) and D-dimer 1.59 (AUC-0.769, OR-1.52) respectively.

Conclusions: Applicable cut-offs for calculated total plasma osmolality, eGFR, and D-dimer predicts clinical outcome in severe COVID-19 with and without diabetes. Correlation studies validated calculated total osmolality as a marker of the combined effect of fluid and metabolic imbalance, compromised renal function and hypercoagulability.

Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors whose names are listed immediately below certify that they have NO affiliations with or involvement in any organization or entity with any financial interest (such as honoraria; educational grants; participation in speakers’ bureaus; membership, employment, consultancies, stock ownership, or other equity interest; and expert testimony or patent-licensing arrangements), or non-financial interest (such as personal or professional relationships, affiliations, knowledge or beliefs) in the subject matter or materials discussed in this manuscript.

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