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We consider issues related to the effect of climate change on the persistence of (trend-corrected) temperatures using global gridded data for both land and oceans. We first discuss how the presence of trends and additive noise affects inference about persistence. Ignoring a trend induces an upward bias, while not accounting for noise induces a downward bias. We show that the increase in persistence in the commonly used Warm Spell Duration Index is simply an artifact of increasing temperatures. To purge the impact of both trends and noise, we adopt a simple state-space model. Of separate interest, we document a much larger noise component for land than for oceans. The estimates of the persistence are much larger for oceans than for land. Inspection of the estimates across various subsamples and the application of tests for structural changes suggest the same pattern of persistence for both land and oceans across time, with few minor exceptions. Hence, our results show that surface temperature persistence has remained constant during the observed period.

Titel:	On the persistence of near-surface temperature dynamics in a warming world.
Autor/in / Beteiligte Person:	Estrada, F ; Perron, P ; Yamamoto, Y
Link:	Full Text Finder (Volltext)
Zeitschrift:	Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Jg. 1531 (2024), Heft 1, S. 69-83
Veröffentlichung:	2006- : New York, NY : Malden, MA : New York Academy of Sciences ; Blackwell ; <i>Original Publication</i>: New York, The Academy., 2024
Medientyp:	academicJournal
ISSN:	1749-6632 (electronic)
DOI:	10.1111/nyas.15088
Schlagwort:	Humans Temperature Oceans and Seas Climate Change Global Warming
Sonstiges:	Nachgewiesen in: MEDLINE Sprachen: English Publication Type: Journal Article Language: English [Ann N Y Acad Sci] 2024 Jan; Vol. 1531 (1), pp. 69-83. <i>Date of Electronic Publication: </i>2023 Dec 05. MeSH Terms: Climate Change* ; Global Warming* ; Humans ; Temperature ; Oceans and Seas References: Estrada, F., & Perron, P. (2014). Detection and attribution of climate change through econometric methods. Boletín De La Sociedad Matemática Mexicana, 20(1), 107-136. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40590-014-0009-7. ; Estrada, F., & Botzen, W. J. W. (2021). Economic impacts and risks of climate change under failure and success of the Paris Agreement. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1504(1), 95-115. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14652. ; Estrada, F., Tol, R. S. J., & Gay-García, C. (2015). The persistence of shocks in GDP and the estimation of the potential economic costs of climate change. 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On the persistence of near-surface temperature dynamics in a warming world.