Pyrogeography in flux: Reorganization of Australian fire regimes in a hotter world.

Cunningham, CX ; Williamson, GJ ; et al.

In: Global change biology, Jg. 30 (2024), Heft 1, S. e17130

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Changes to the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire are having profound implications for ecosystems and society globally, but we have limited understanding of the extent to which fire regimes will reorganize in a warming world. While predicting regime shifts remains challenging because of complex climate-vegetation-fire feedbacks, understanding the climate niches of fire regimes provides a simple way to identify locations most at risk of regime change. Using globally available satellite datasets, we constructed 14 metrics describing the spatiotemporal dimensions of fire and then delineated Australia's pyroregions-the geographic area encapsulating a broad fire regime. Cluster analysis revealed 18 pyroregions, notably including the (1) high-intensity, infrequent fires of the temperate forests, (2) high-frequency, smaller fires of the tropical savanna, and (3) low-intensity, diurnal, human-engineered fires of the agricultural zones. To inform the risk of regime shifts, we identified locations where the climate under three CMIP6 scenarios is projected to shift (i) beyond each pyroregion's historical climate niche, and (ii) into climate space that is novel to the Australian continent. Under middle-of-the-road climate projections (SSP2-4.5), an average of 65% of the extent of the pyroregions occurred beyond their historical climate niches by 2081-2100. Further, 52% of pyroregion extents, on average, were projected to occur in climate space without present-day analogues on the Australian continent, implying high risk of shifting to states that also lack present-day counterparts. Pyroregions in tropical and hot-arid climates were most at risk of shifting into both locally and continentally novel climate space because (i) their niches are narrower than southern temperate pyroregions, and (ii) their already-hot climates lead to earlier departure from present-day climate space. Such a shift implies widespread risk of regime shifts and the emergence of no-analogue fire regimes. Our approach can be applied to other regions to assess vulnerability to rapid fire regime change.

Titel:	Pyrogeography in flux: Reorganization of Australian fire regimes in a hotter world.
Autor/in / Beteiligte Person:	Cunningham, CX ; Williamson, GJ ; Nolan, RH ; Teckentrup, L ; Boer, MM ; Bowman, DMJS
Link:	Full Text Finder (Volltext)
Zeitschrift:	Global change biology, Jg. 30 (2024), Heft 1, S. e17130
Veröffentlichung:	<Jan. 2013-> : Oxford : Blackwell Pub. ; <i>Original Publication</i>: Oxford, UK : Blackwell Science, 1995-, 2024
Medientyp:	academicJournal
ISSN:	1365-2486 (electronic)
DOI:	10.1111/gcb.17130
Schlagwort:	Humans Australia Forests Climate Climate Change Ecosystem Fires
Sonstiges:	Nachgewiesen in: MEDLINE Sprachen: English Publication Type: Journal Article Language: English [Glob Chang Biol] 2024 Jan; Vol. 30 (1), pp. e17130. MeSH Terms: Ecosystem* ; Fires* ; Humans ; Australia ; Forests ; Climate ; Climate Change References: Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., & Barbero, R. (2019). Global emergence of anthropogenic climate change in fire weather indices. Geophysical Research Letters, 46(1), 326-336. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080959. ; Abram, N. J., Henley, B. J., Sen Gupta, A., Lippmann, T. J. R., Clarke, H., Dowdy, A. J., Sharples, J. J., Nolan, R. H., Zhang, T., & Boer, M. M. (2021). Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia. Communications Earth & Environment, 2(1), 8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00065-8. ; Adeleye, M. A., Haberle, S. G., Connor, S. E., Stevenson, J., & Bowman, D. M. J. S. (2021). 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Grant Information: DP220100795 Australian Research Council; FL220100099 Australian Research Council Contributed Indexing: Keywords: climate change; fire regime shift; novel ecosystems; novel fire regimes; pyromes; pyroregions Entry Date(s): Date Created: 20240126 Date Completed: 20240129 Latest Revision: 20240129 Update Code: 20240129

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