Mean, variance, and trends of Levant precipitation over the past 4500 years from reconstructed Dead Sea levels and stochastic modeling.
In: Quaternary Research, Jg. 91 (2019-03-01), Heft 2, S. 751-767
academicJournal
Zugriff:
A novel quantitative assessment of late Holocene precipitation in the Levant is presented, including mean and variance of annual precipitation and their trends. A stochastic framework was utilized and allowed, possibly for the first time, linking high-quality, reconstructed rises/declines in Dead Sea levels with precipitation trends in its watershed. We determined the change in mean annual precipitation for 12 specific intervals over the past 4500 yr, concluding that: (1) the twentieth century was substantially wetter than most of the late Holocene; (2) a representative reference value of mean annual precipitation is 75% of the present-day parameter; (3) during the late Holocene, mean annual precipitation ranged between −17 and +66% of the reference value (−37 to +25% of present-day conditions); (4) the driest intervals were 1500–1200 BC and AD 755–890, and the wettest intervals were 2500–2460 BC, 130–40 BC, AD 350–490, and AD 1770–1940; (5) lake-level rises and declines probably occurred in response to trends in precipitation means and are less likely to occur when precipitation mean is constant; (6) average trends in mean annual precipitation during intervals of ≥200 yr did not exceed 15 mm per decade. The precipitation trends probably reflect shifts in eastern Mediterranean cyclone tracks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Titel: |
Mean, variance, and trends of Levant precipitation over the past 4500 years from reconstructed Dead Sea levels and stochastic modeling.
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Autor/in / Beteiligte Person: | Morin, Efrat ; Ryb, Tamar ; Gavrieli, Ittai ; Enzel, Yehouda |
Zeitschrift: | Quaternary Research, Jg. 91 (2019-03-01), Heft 2, S. 751-767 |
Veröffentlichung: | 2019 |
Medientyp: | academicJournal |
ISSN: | 0033-5894 (print) |
DOI: | 10.1017/qua.2018.98 |
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