UTICAJ PANDEMIJE COVID-19 NA KRETANJA SDI – ISKUSTVA SRBIJE. (Bosnian)

This study analyzes the impact of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on economic trends, as well as the flow of foreign direct investment. The COVID-19 recession can be considered unique because it is the only one that since 1870 has been triggered exclusively by a pandemic. The impact of the new pandemic had a picture of comprehensive stagnation as well as the slowdown of the world economy, whose main visualizations are reflected in the systematic closure of economic activities around the world, where the closure of activities occurs in different sectors simultaneously. This research focuses on the impact of the global economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on economic movements in the world and in the Republic of Serbia. The focus of this research is to determine the impact of the pandemic on foreign direct investments in Serbia, as well as the relationship of FDI with exports and imports. The general trend of FDI before the pandemic is characterized by a decline in 2019, with the global crisis caused by the pandemic contributing to a marked decline in FDI in 2020. FDI flow at the global level in 2021 had a tendency to grow compared to the previous year, with normalization of FDI flow expected only in 2022. Using three models, the authors determined that COVID-19 pandemic in Serbia had a statistically significant and negative impact on GDP per capita at a confidence level of 90%. On the other hand, the impact of COVID-19 on exports is not statistically significant. The results indicate that the unit growth of foreign direct investment consequently leads to higher growth of imports compared to exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

U ovom istraživanju analiziran je uticaj krize prouzrokovane pandemijom COVID-19 na ekonomska kretanja, kao i protok stranih direktnih investicija. COVID-19 recesija se može smatrati jedinstvenom, jer je jedina koja je od 1870. godine pokrenuta isključivo pandemijom. Uticaj novonastale pandemije posedovao je sliku sveobuhvatne stagnacije kao i usporavanja svetske ekonomije, čije se glavne vizualizacije ogledaju u sistematskom gašenju ekonomskih aktivnosti širom sveta, gde se gašenje aktivnosti dešava u različitim sektorima istovremeno. Ovo istraživanje se fokusira na uticaj svetske ekonomske krize prouzrokovanom pandemijom COVID-19 na ekonomska kretanja u svetu i u Republici Srbiji. U fokusu ovog istraživanja je utvrđivanje uticaja pandemije na strane direktne investicije u Srbiji, kao i odnosa SDI sa izvozom i uvozom. Generalna kretanja SDI pre pandemije odlikuje pad od 2019. godine, pri čemu je svetska kriza prouzrokovana pandemijom doprinela izrazitom padu SDI u 2020. godini. Protok SDI na globalnom nivou je u 2021. godini posedovao tendenciju rasta nasuprot prethodne godine, pri čemu s normalizacija protoka SDI očekuje tek u 2022. godini. Autori su koristeći tri modela utvrdili da je u Srbiji COVID-19 imao statistički značajan i negativan uticaj na BDP po glavi stanovnika na nivou pouzdanosti od 90%. Sa druge strane, uticaj COVID-19 na izvoz nije statistički značajan. Rezultati ukazuju da jedinični rast stranih direktnih investicija dovodi posledično do većeg rasta uvoza u odnosu na izvoz. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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