BALTIJOS REGIONO ŠALTOJO LAIKOTARPIO ORO TEMPERATŪROS SĄSAJOS SU LEDO DANGOS IŠPLITIMU ARKTIES VANDENYNE. (Limburgan)

The variability of the atmospheric circulation described by the AO and NAO indices has a significant impact on the fluctuations of climate parameters in the Baltic Sea region. Many research show, that a decline in Arctic Sea ice extent increases the likelihood of negative phases of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter, and in the future could lead to more frequent relatively cold weather events during winter months in Baltic Sea region. This research is important for understanding possible teleconnections between Arctic Sea ice and atmospheric circulation (AO and NAO). In addition, this research helps to better understand the dynamics of Arctic Sea ice extent and Baltic Sea region air temperature, as well as AO and NAO circulation impact on the air temperature in the Baltic Sea region. A statistically significant decrease in the Arctic Sea ice extent and a statistically significant increase in the air temperature in the Baltic Sea region have been determined. The obtained results show that the expansion of the Arctic Sea ice in January-February with a delay of one month determines the AO and NAO values (correlation coefficients vary from 0.32 to 0.55). This means that if Arctic Sea ice decreases during winter months, AO and NAO indices are more likely to become negative as well. However, as the obtained correlations are not very strong, the results are insufficient to confirm the hypothesis that the Arctic Sea ice extent impacts negative AO and NAO phases likelihood and requires further research. A strong correlation between the Baltic Sea region air temperature and the values of AO/NAO indices has been established. The obtained results show that the Baltic Sea region air temperature variability in December-March is greatly influenced by the AO and NAO phases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Klimato parametrų svyravimus Baltijos jūros regione stipriai veikia atmosferos cirkuliacijos kintamumas, didele dalimi nusakomas NAO ir AO tolimųjų ryšių indeksais. Manoma, kad Arkties jūros ledo mažėjimas padidina Arkties osciliacijos (AO) ir Šiaurės Atlanto osciliacijos (NAO) neigiamų fazių galimybę žiemą, todėl ateityje šaltų žiemų tikimybė vidutinėse platumose išliks, nepaisant sparčiai šylančio klimato (Jakobson et al., 2017; Screen, 2017). Darbe atliktas tyrimas svarbus suvokiant galimas sąsajas tarp Arkties jūros leduotumo pokyčių ir galimų atmosferos cirkuliacijos (AO ir NAO) pokyčių. Taip pat šis darbas padeda geriau suvokti Arkties ledo išplitimo dinamikos bei AO ir NAO reiškinių sąsajas su Baltijos regiono oro temperatūra. Tyrimo rezultatai rodo, kad Arkties ledo išplitimas sausio-vasario mėnesiais (su vieno mėnesio vėlavimu) statistiškai reikšmingai siejasi su AO ir NAO reikšmėmis: mažėjant Arkties ledo dangai, AO ir NAO reikšmės taip pat mažėja. O tai gali lemti ir santykinai vėsesnes žiemas Baltijos jūros regione. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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