Warm Advection as a Cause for Extreme Heat Event in North China.
In: Geophysical Research Letters, Jg. 51 (2024-06-28), Heft 12, S. 1-10
Online
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Zugriff:
Extreme heat events (EHEs) often hit North China, resulting in significant losses. The devastating EHE in the 1743 summer, marked as the highest temperature in the past 300 years, led to ∼11,000 fatalities. These historical EHEs prompt us to explore potential mechanisms beyond anthropogenic influences. We employ the Norwegian Earth System Model here to simulate the past millennium climate and then dynamically downscale the July 1743 event using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The successful simulation of warming in North China, although it has been a fortunate outcome, is supported by tree‐ring records, providing a compelling case study for the event. Through composite and case analyses, we discover a connection between EHEs and active Northeast China Vortexes (NCVs) which induce warm advection, consequently heating the lower atmosphere. Reanalysis further confirms the connection in the modern era. Our study suggests modeling past EHEs, while challenging, is indeed feasible. Plain Language Summary: Nowadays, heat waves have a significant impact on our society and result in substantial economic losses. Climate projections indicate that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more frequent. However, heat waves have also often occurred in the past 300 years during periods with much lower anthropogenic forcing. One notable example is the severe heat event in the summer of 1743, which killed more than 10 thousand people in North China. The mechanism behind such events remains uncertain, making it exciting and valuable to investigate such heat waves in the past. In this study, we use a global model, a nested regional model, and tree‐ring records to explore the mechanisms driving EHEs. The statistical robustness of the connection between EHEs in North China and Northeast China Vortexes is supported by modern observations. Notably, from 1950 to 2021, 63.6% of EHEs in North China coincide with active Northeast China Vortexes. Key Points: Our simulation, supported by tree‐ring, shows that warm advection linked to Northeast China Vortex likely drove the 1743 extreme heat event (EHE)Reanalysis data from 1950 to 2021 indicate that 63.6% of EHEs in North China coincide with active Northeast China VortexesOur study implies that modeling past extreme climate events is feasible to gain insights into their causes and dynamics [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Titel: |
Warm Advection as a Cause for Extreme Heat Event in North China.
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Autor/in / Beteiligte Person: | Wang, Xijin ; Zhang, Zhongshi ; Yu, Entao ; Guo, Chuncheng ; Otterå, Odd Helge ; Counillon, François |
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Zeitschrift: | Geophysical Research Letters, Jg. 51 (2024-06-28), Heft 12, S. 1-10 |
Veröffentlichung: | 2024 |
Medientyp: | academicJournal |
ISSN: | 0094-8276 (print) |
DOI: | 10.1029/2024GL108995 |
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