Simple vs. Complex Learning Revisited: Israeli Prime Ministers and the Question of a Palestinian State.

When does a decision-maker's shift on a major policy issue represent a genuine reassessment in his or her beliefs as opposed to tactical maneuvering? This article provides a framework to improve our confidence that a policy shift represents 'complex learning,' which entails the adoption of new goals, rather than 'simple learning,' which refers to a change in means but not goals. Challenging the conventional wisdom on learning, it argues that decision makers who alter their foreign policies incrementally are more likely to have had a fundamental rethinking of their underlying assumptions on a core issue than those who exhibit sudden shifts in their foreign policy decisions absent a traumatic event. The public declarations of Israel's three most recent premiers-Ariel Sharon, Ehud Olmert, and Benjamin Netanyahu-in support of the establishment of a Palestinian state are used to illustrate the utility of this framework. Whereas Sharon and Olmert underwent complex learning, Netanyahu's swift change appears to represent merely a tactical response to pressure from the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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